130. He's Gotta Donkey

We have gone ex-directory with our phone number.  I had been receiving three or four calls a day from men with heavy Indian accents who always began their spiel by assuring me that they are not trying to sell me anything.  Then, they proceeded to ask me very personal questions about my marital status, my children and my income.  I tell them to mind their own business and then they would hang up. I suppose it’s relatively harmless but it is very irritating.

Recently, I have started getting unwelcome, unsolicited texts.

This was the first:

Thursday September 8th 11:18

I’ll tell you a horse that will ROUT rivals today and WIN!  Connections are LUMPING on.  IRISH gambles rarely beaten as you know.  Only asking for one chance.  Just send £10 after the race when the horse wins.  After it wins I’ll send bank details.  OK??

Tipper

I had no intention of backing the horse but I was curious and so I texted “OK”.  A couple of hours later I received a message telling me to back The Anvil in the 4:50 at Doncaster that afternoon and that I should send £10 to the tipster when it won in order that I would continue to receive these “life changing” tips.

I phoned Nigel, about whose expertise in matters of equine venturing I have written about before, (Click to see) and asked what he thought of The Anvil’s chances.  He told me it was a good horse with a good chance but so had at least two others in the field.  I didn’t back it.  The Anvil started as favourite and finished 3rd at 13/8.

Over the next week or so I continued to receive tips.  All the selections were short-priced favourites.  I suppose that Tipper worked on the theory that a very short priced or an “odds on” horse is more likely to win and so, eventually, he would tip a winner and demand payment.

As he only tipped short-priced favourites, the statistics were on his side.  Over an 8-year study period, horses with a starting price (SP) of 1/5 (wager £5 to win £1) won 86% of races they started; horses with a SP of 1/2 won 63% of the time and those that started at even money or 1/1, won 49% of races.

His selections have an average SP of 5.65/4.  In the study, horses with that starting price won more than 40% of races.  Tipper’s “certainties” all lost but statistically, he should have had at least 3 winners.  This is what he tipped and they all started favourite:

Sept.	Course	Horse	SP	Finish	Runners
8	Doncaster	The Anvil	13/8F	3rd	8
9	Doncaster	Nemoralia	4/6F	7th	7
12	Brighton	Buteo Bai	11/8F	9th	12
13	Chepstow	Desert Tango	10/11F	2nd	10
14	Kelso	Dalaman	11/4F	5th	11
23	Haydock	Parliamentarian	11/8F	2nd	5
24	Ripon	Blue Jean Baby	11/8F	3rd	7
26	Bath	Maazel	5/4F	2nd	10

No one could have done worse, blindfolded with a pin.  The tip he sent for Parliamentarian was interesting because it arrived at 4:59. The race had started 25 minutes earlier and the horse had already finished second.

Just how awful Tipper is as a professional tipster may be demonstrated by the results that Nigel and I had in a competition we once held between the two of us.  Over the course of 18 days in November 2015, we each made one selection a day.  Both of us began with 75 points and whoever had most points at the end of the period was the winner.  Nigel selected 7 winners out of 18 and ended with 126 points, while I picked 5 winners and ended with 92. 

Nigel had achieved growth of 68% in 8 days and my gain was 23%.  I think that was  impressive and I wish I knew who the Tipster is because he might pay us for help and advice.