We have gone
ex-directory with our phone number. I
had been receiving three or four calls a day from men with heavy Indian accents
who always began their spiel by assuring me that they are not trying to sell me
anything. Then, they proceeded to ask me
very personal questions about my marital status, my children and my
income. I tell them to mind their own
business and then they would hang up. I suppose it’s relatively harmless but it
is very irritating.
Recently, I
have started getting unwelcome, unsolicited texts.
This was the
first:
Thursday September 8th 11:18
I’ll tell you a horse that will ROUT rivals today and WIN! Connections are LUMPING on. IRISH gambles rarely beaten as you know. Only asking for one chance. Just send £10 after the race when the horse
wins. After it wins I’ll send bank
details. OK??
Tipper
I had no
intention of backing the horse but I was curious and so I texted “OK”. A couple of hours later I received a message
telling me to back The Anvil in the 4:50 at Doncaster that afternoon and that I
should send £10 to the tipster when it won in order that I would continue to
receive these “life changing” tips.
I phoned Nigel,
about whose expertise in matters of equine venturing I have written about
before, (Click to see) and asked what he thought of The Anvil’s chances. He told me it was a good horse with a good chance
but so had at least two others in the field. I didn’t back it. The Anvil started as favourite and finished
3rd at 13/8.
Over the next
week or so I continued to receive tips.
All the selections were short-priced favourites. I suppose that Tipper worked on the theory
that a very short priced or an “odds on” horse is more likely to win and so,
eventually, he would tip a winner and demand payment.
As he only
tipped short-priced favourites, the statistics were on his side. Over an 8-year study period, horses with a
starting price (SP) of 1/5 (wager £5 to win £1) won 86% of races they started;
horses with a SP of 1/2 won 63% of the time and those that started at even
money or 1/1, won 49% of races.
His
selections have an average SP of 5.65/4.
In the study, horses with that starting price won more than 40% of
races. Tipper’s “certainties” all lost
but statistically, he should have had at least 3 winners. This is what he tipped and they all started
favourite:
Sept.
|
Course
|
Horse
|
SP
|
Finish
|
Runners
|
8
|
Doncaster
|
The Anvil
|
13/8F
|
3rd
|
8
|
9
|
Doncaster
|
Nemoralia
|
4/6F
|
7th
|
7
|
12
|
Brighton
|
Buteo Bai
|
11/8F
|
9th
|
12
|
13
|
Chepstow
|
Desert
Tango
|
10/11F
|
2nd
|
10
|
14
|
Kelso
|
Dalaman
|
11/4F
|
5th
|
11
|
23
|
Haydock
|
Parliamentarian
|
11/8F
|
2nd
|
5
|
24
|
Ripon
|
Blue Jean
Baby
|
11/8F
|
3rd
|
7
|
26
|
Bath
|
Maazel
|
5/4F
|
2nd
|
10
|
No one could
have done worse, blindfolded with a pin.
The tip he sent for Parliamentarian was interesting because it arrived
at 4:59. The race had started 25 minutes earlier and the horse had already finished
second.
Just how
awful Tipper is as a professional tipster may be demonstrated by the results
that Nigel and I had in a competition we once held between the two of us. Over the course of 18 days in November 2015, we each made one
selection a day. Both of us began with
75 points and whoever had most points at the end of the period was the winner. Nigel selected 7 winners out of 18 and ended
with 126 points, while I picked 5 winners and ended with 92.
Nigel had achieved
growth of 68% in 8 days and my gain was 23%. I think that was impressive and I wish I knew who the Tipster
is because he might pay us for help and advice.
